From prediction markets to polling station closures, October’s Ripped from the Headlines salon, led by Andrea Bonime-Blanc, unpacked the pressures facing one of the most consequential midterms in US history and left us with a practical plan to make our votes count.
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October’s edition of the Athena Alliance / GEC Risk Advisory LLC “Ripped from the Headlines” live Salon focused on discussing the practicalities of voting at the upcoming US Midterm Elections especially given the many challenges that are leading up to this election – one of the most critical elections in US history.
We reviewed some facts and figures from traditional pollsters and the new prediction markets, discussed collective concerns about election integrity ahead of the upcoming midterm elections and shared practical tactics we can all deploy to help ensure a free and fair election.
I led the discussion with a slide deck containing headlines and analysis (some of which are shared in this blog below) with participants sharing their perspectives on voting concerns, including issues with polling station closures, particularly in rural and minority communities, as well as the impact of disinformation and the need for voters to verify information independently in advance of the actual election day. We discussed the role of social media platforms in potentially interfering with election-related content. Participants also shared experiences from different states and countries they have lived in.
Below is the slide encapsulating the questions we discussed during our Chatham House Rules conversation.
Top Themes
Prediction Markets and Election Reliability
I led a discussion about the reliability of traditional polling and newer prediction markets, noting that in past elections, prediction markets were more accurate than pollsters. A participant shared her superstition about not making predictions and advised voters in California (where she lives) to use ballot boxes rather than mail-in voting to ensure security. She emphasized the importance of encouraging voting and addressing accessibility issues for those in rural areas, while expressing concern about potential election-related shenanigans.
Below are two slides I presented – one showing the turning tide in what the prediction markets are saying about control of the Senate and the other showing what each main prediction market – Kalshi and Polymarket – are saying about the overall outcomes.
The group discussed concerns about voting access and election integrity, with one participant who lives in Texas sharing research that Texas has closed 750 polling locations since 2012, including 74 in Dallas alone – a majority Democrat city.
Another participant highlighted issues with big tech companies potentially interfering with voting-related content, citing examples of social media accounts being shut down during voting awareness marches on No Kings Day October 17th when purportedly Instagram shut down the No Kings related account for more than 4 hours.
A participant shared her experiences canvassing in Michigan, noting concerns about voter awareness and preparation, particularly among younger voters, while also questioning what Democrats might accomplish if they regain congressional control. while also asking what a change in congressional control could mean for policy.
Below is one of my slides showing the disproportionate role that independents play in American elections with many more appearing to favor democrats this time around.
A participant expressed agreement with another about volunteering at polling stations and shared concerns about election polls, noting that the Texas Senate race being close despite issues with candidate Paxton as a concerning aspect of our politics. the Texas Senate race seems closer than some expected, a notable development.
A participant mentioned a Financial Times focus group with Pennsylvania residents who criticized Trump’s actions but remained committed to their votes. The discussion highlighted how both political sides view the other as corrupt, and another participant emphasized that economic concerns often outweigh international issues for voters.
Below is a fascinating poll by Fox News that I shared with the group showing results of their polling of registered voters across the US signaling that government corruption is the single most important concern of voters by far – with 88% agreeing that it was extremely or very concerning.
A participant shared her personal experiences with voting rights in different countries and expressed concern about the erosion of accountability by institutions concern about the strength of institutional accountability in the US. She discussed her approach to political conversations, which involves gently reinforcing information and sharing fact-checks with others in a non-confrontational way. Below is a recent Presidential approval rating showing how the President’s approval is near rock bottom for both terms the President’s approval rating across both terms, and which is currently at historically low levels.
Another participant mentioned a recent article about Zohran Mandani, painting him as a centrist Democrat even though he is a Democratic Socialist because of the way he is actually governing describing him as more moderate in practice than his Democratic Socialist label suggests, based on how he is governing as NYC Mayor. She also used the example of a Kansas Senate race to illustrate her preference for voting for more well-rounded candidates over those with questionable backgrounds regardless of ideology.
A participant shared her personal experience of growing up in an authoritarian Central African country where people lose trust in the electoral system, comparing it to current concerns about voting in the US.
Another participant emphasized the importance of media literacy to protect democracy, highlighting how misinformation spreads across various media outlets. The group discussed the need for critical thinking and source verification, with one participant acknowledging the challenge of navigating misinformation and sharing her own approach to managing news consumption. Another participant raised concerns about foreign interference in elections, particularly mentioning reports of alleged foreign country interference in US elections and the potential foreign interference from countries like Russia.
As we always do, we try to accentuate practical steps of what we can do to overcome some of the challenges we discussed. This focus was particularly important as there are less than 2 weeks left in an election season of towering importance to the health and longevity of US democracy.
Some of the salient to do’s discussed were:
Below is a snapshot of my recent #GoverningPandoraSubstack Blog “The Month in Megatrends” in which I analyze several scenarios for this election. Available here:https://governingpandora.substack.com/p/quantum-russia-corruption-anti-capitalism
